RIVN
speculativeRivian Automotive, Inc. / DE · NASDAQ
Snapshot taken 1 hour ago (Aug 3, 2026, 12:38 PM ET). Stored, not recomputed — prices are as of that moment. Open in the app ↗
Analysis AI · anthropic:claude-sonnet-5run Aug 3, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Rivian posted a Q2 beat with raised FY2026 delivery guidance (65-70k units) and narrower losses/capex, driving analyst target upgrades (Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley), but the stock sold off ~8% post-print as Wall Street flagged persistent profitability and cash-burn concerns ahead of the R2 launch. Over the next two quarters, the setup is a tug-of-war between improving delivery/guidance trends and ongoing negative automotive margins, high cash burn, and execution risk on R2 ramp and autonomy investment, with technicals showing a neutral/weak trend and no confirmed breakout.
- Overall
- 6/100
- Confidence
- 48/100
Catalysts
- ▲ Raised FY2026 delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000 units from 62,000-67,000 (RIVN:2026-07-31:raised_guidance:19557c0b)
- ▲ Q2 beat with higher revenue and smaller losses, narrower full-year adjusted EBITDA loss forecast and lower capex expectations (RIVN:2026-08-01:dilution:e9332eae)
- ▲ R2 SUV launch/ramp seen as key upcoming catalyst and demand driver (news:news:a9dc3c87a791492ae1aeb50b, RIVN:2026-08-01:cashflow_improvement:d8d1546d)
- ▲ Analyst price target increases: Wells Fargo to $16 from $15, Morgan Stanley to $14 from $13 (RIVN:2026-07-31:cashflow_improvement:d8d1546d)
- ▲ Stock reaction was negative (-8%) despite beat, reflecting margin/profitability skepticism (RIVN:2026-07-31:raised_guidance:19557c0b)
Risks
- ▼ Ongoing cash burn and negative automotive margins leave Rivian reliant on external funding (RIVN:2026-08-01:cash_burn:57251f10)
- ▼ Free cash flow is deeply negative (-$1.19B) against $3.592B cash and $4.444B debt, implying limited runway without further capital raises (fund:RIVN:2026-08-03T16:37:45.135Z)
- ▼ Concern about further dilution to fund growth persists despite disciplined spending signals (RIVN:2026-08-01:dilution:e9332eae)
- ▼ Morgan Stanley flags 'high-risk production ramp phase' for R2 execution (RIVN:2026-07-31:cashflow_improvement:d8d1546d)
- ▼ Stock fell ~8% on the print despite beat/guidance raise, indicating market skepticism (RIVN:2026-07-31:raised_guidance:19557c0b)
- ▼ Technicals show neutral trend, low relative volume (0.23x avg), momentum negative over 20-day window, no breakout confirmed (tech:RIVN:2026-08-03T04:00:00Z)
Scenarios
Bull 25% · Base 50% · Bear 25%
Bull R2 launch executes smoothly and drives delivery upside beyond raised guidance (RIVN:2026-08-01:cashflow_improvement:d8d1546d)
Bear Negative automotive margins persist and cash burn accelerates, pressuring liquidity (RIVN:2026-08-01:cash_burn:57251f10)
Missing data
Exact share count and dilution/float trends over recent quarters · Detailed automotive gross margin figures · Specific R2 production timeline and unit economics · Analyst consensus EPS/revenue estimates for next two quarters · Debt maturity schedule and covenant details · Institutional ownership and short interest data
Technical
- Trend
- neutral
- Tech score
- 24/100
- RSI(14)
- 43.4
- SMA 20/50/200
- 16.87 / 16.47 / 16.09
- MACD
- -0.198
- ATR(14)
- 1.078
- Rel volume
- 0.23
- Avg $ volume
- $25.6M
- Momentum 20/60/120d
- -23% / 6.9% / 5.3%
- From 52w high
- -31.7%
- Golden cross
- yes
- Volatility
- high
Fundamentals SEC
- Market cap
- —
- Shares outstanding
- —
- Public float
- 14,300,000,000
- Revenue
- $1.66B
- Revenue growth
- 8.4%
- Cash
- $3.59B
- Debt
- $4.44B
- Runway
- 36.2 mo
Sources 8
- RIVN Stock Pulls Back But Eyes Third Straight Green Week On R2 Hype - Stocktwits
-
Stronger Q2 Results and R2 Ramp-Up Plans Could Be A Game Changer For Rivian (RIVN)
- ▼ cash burn
The latest Q2 report, with higher revenue, smaller losses, and raised 2026 delivery guidance, supports that near term catalyst, but the biggest risk remains ongoing cash burn and negative automotive margins, which still leave Rivian reliant
- ▼ dilution
This sits alongside a narrower full year adjusted EBITDA loss forecast and lower capex expectations, which together point to a more disciplined spending profile but do not remove the underlying concern about how long Rivian can fund its gro
- ▼ cash burn
- Rivian (RIVN) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Lift As Analysts Raise Delivery Confidence
- RIVN Q2 Deep Dive: R2 Launch, Autonomy Investment, and Scaling Challenges
-
RIVN Stock Slides Toward Biggest Monthly Drop Since January – Wall Street Flags Profitability Challenges Despite Q2 Beat
- ▲ raised guidance
Wells Fargo raised its price target to $16 from $15 but kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating, according to The Fly.Morgan Stanley said Rivian must successfully execute on autonomous technology, production scaling, and cost reductions to achieve su
- ▲ cashflow improvement
Wells Fargo raised its price target to $16 from $15 but kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating, according to The Fly.Morgan Stanley said Rivian must successfully execute on autonomous technology, production scaling, and cost reductions to achieve su
- ▲ cashflow improvement
The firm raised its price target to $16 from $15 but kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating, according to The Fly.Morgan Stanley raised its target to $14 from $13 but maintained an ‘Underweight’ rating, warning that Rivian is entering a “high-risk p
- ▲ raised guidance
- RIVN Stock Pops as Rivian Raises Delivery Guidance for 2026
- RIVN stock edges up after-hours — EV maker narrows full year guidance and tempers spending plans
- Rivian (RIVN) Stock Looks Weak On Returns Yet Rich On Sales - Yahoo Finance
Prices from iex (delayed). Fundamentals from SEC EDGAR. Indicators computed locally. First covered Aug 3, 2026, 12:33 PM ET.